Executive Summary
For the complete 15-page institutional PDF with DCF models, sensitivity tables, and specific entry/exit zones:
→ Download Full LVMH Analysis
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Recommendation | BUY – Entry Point Reached |
| Current Price | €547.00 |
| Fair Value (Base Case) | €680.00 |
| Margin of Safety | 19.6% |
| Wealth Preservation Score | 76/100 |
| Expected Total Return | 8.3% CAGR |
Thesis in Two Sentences: At €547—the lowest price since October 2025 and 28% below 52-week highs—this LVMH stock analysis identifies a compelling entry point with nearly 20% margin of safety to fair value. The fortress balance sheet and 2.4% dividend yield provide asymmetric downside protection while positioning for luxury sector recovery.
The Risk: Fashion & Leather Goods organic growth declined 3% in Q4 2025, and CEO Bernard Arnault warned that 2026 “won’t be simple” amid geopolitical uncertainty and U.S. tariff risks under the Trump administration.
Why LVMH Now: The Post-Earnings Opportunity
This LVMH stock analysis arrives at a critical inflection point. The FY2025 earnings release on January 28, 2026, triggered an 8% single-day decline—creating precisely the entry conditions our Wealth Preservation Framework requires.
The market’s reaction appears disproportionate to fundamentals. Q4 revenue of €22.7 billion exceeded consensus estimates of €22.2 billion. Full-year revenue of €80.8 billion represents only a 1% year-over-year decline, with operating income holding at €17.8 billion.
What drove the selloff?
The core Fashion & Leather Goods division—LVMH’s profit engine—posted a 3% organic decline in Q4, underperforming peers like Richemont and Burberry who delivered earnings beats. The Wine & Spirits division continues dragging group margins. Management’s cautious forward guidance amplified investor concerns.
Why this creates asymmetric opportunity:
The stock now trades at 25x trailing P/E—the lowest valuation multiple in over three years. Asia (ex-Japan) showed improving trends with return to growth in H2 2025. Sephora delivered double-digit profit growth, partially offsetting segment weakness. Free cash flow remains robust at €10.5 billion annually.
Fundamental Gatekeeping: Balance Sheet Analysis
Our LVMH stock analysis applies rigorous fundamental gatekeeping before any position recommendation. The balance sheet must demonstrate fortress characteristics that protect capital during adverse scenarios.
Capital Structure Assessment
| Metric | Value | Threshold | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Debt-to-Equity | 0.60x | <1.0x | ✓ PASS |
| Net Debt/Equity | 0.15x | <0.5x | ✓ EXCELLENT |
| Interest Coverage | 18.7x | >5.0x | ✓ FORTRESS |
| Current Ratio | 1.48x | >1.5x | ~ ADEQUATE |
| Cash / Total Debt | 55% | >20% | ✓ EXCELLENT |
The 18.7x interest coverage ratio provides exceptional protection against earnings volatility. LVMH could experience a 90% decline in operating income before debt service obligations become problematic. This structural resilience underpins our confidence in the position.
Dividend Security Analysis
| Metric | Value | Assessment |
|---|---|---|
| Annual Dividend | €13.00/share | Maintained for FY2025 |
| Yield at €547 | 2.38% | Highest yield in 5+ years |
| Payout Ratio (EPS) | 59% | <60% preferred ✓ |
| Payout Ratio (FCF) | 42% | <70% preferred ✓ |
| Dividend Coverage (FCF/Div) | 2.4x | >1.3x preferred ✓ |
Critical insight: LVMH maintained dividends through both the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19 pandemic. This 30+ year track record of dividend resilience provides tangible evidence of management’s commitment to shareholder returns during cyclical downturns.
At current prices, the 2.4% dividend yield represents the highest income return available from LVMH shares in over five years—a direct function of price compression rather than fundamental deterioration.
The Full Analysis Behind This Research
This summary presents our institutional framework. Our proprietary 15-page PDF contains the complete analysis including:
- DCF Model with Full Assumptions: WACC calculation, terminal growth rates, and sensitivity matrices
- Technical Entry Zone Analysis: Support/resistance levels with specific price targets
- Probability-Weighted Return Tables: Detailed scenario modeling with confidence intervals
- Position Sizing Calculator: Risk-adjusted allocation framework based on portfolio size
- Quarterly Monitoring Checklist: Specific triggers for adding, holding, or exiting positions
→ Download the Complete LVMH Research PDF
Join 2,400+ investors receiving institutional-grade research directly to your inbox.
Valuation Framework at €547
Our LVMH stock analysis employs multiple valuation methodologies to establish fair value ranges and margin of safety calculations.
Historical Multiple Comparison
| Metric | Current | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg | vs. History |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | 24.9x | 27.7x | 27.3x | -10% Discount |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.1x | 13.2x | 13.0x | -8% Discount |
| P/FCF | 18.5x | 25.0x | 24.5x | -26% Discount |
| Dividend Yield | 2.38% | 1.7% | 1.9% | +40% Premium |
| P/B Ratio | 4.1x | 5.2x | 4.8x | -15% Discount |
At €547, LVMH trades at meaningful discounts to historical averages across every valuation metric examined. The P/FCF discount of 26% is particularly notable—indicating the market significantly undervalues the company’s cash generation capability.
Fair Value Calculation
Our normalized earnings approach yields the following framework:
FY2025 EPS: €22.00
Normalized EPS (assuming margin recovery to 23%): €24.00
Fair P/E Multiple: 27x (historical average)
Conservative P/E Multiple: 24x (current cyclical trough)
Fair Value Range: €576 (conservative) to €648 (normalized)
Midpoint Fair Value: €612
Current Price: €547
Margin of Safety to Midpoint: 10.6%
Margin of Safety to Normalized Fair Value: 15.6%
Show Image Alt text: LVMH stock analysis fair value visualization displaying current €547 price relative to €612 base case and €680 optimistic fair value targets
Suggested image: Horizontal bar chart showing current price at €547 with overlaid fair value zones: conservative (€576), base case (€612), and optimistic (€680).
Valuation Verdict: ATTRACTIVE — Buy Zone Reached
Probability-Weighted Scenario Analysis
Our LVMH stock analysis constructs three distinct scenarios with assigned probability weights based on macroeconomic conditions, competitive dynamics, and company-specific factors.
10-Year Projection from €547 Entry
| Scenario | Revenue CAGR | EPS CAGR | Terminal P/E | 10Y Price | Total CAGR | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BEAR | 0% | -2% | 18x | €320 | 3.5% | 25% |
| BASE | 4% | 5% | 24x | €860 | 8.4% | 50% |
| BULL | 7% | 9% | 28x | €1,480 | 14.0% | 25% |
Probability-Weighted Expected Return: 8.3% CAGR
Calculation: (3.5% × 25%) + (8.4% × 50%) + (14.0% × 25%) = 0.875% + 4.2% + 3.5% = 8.58%
Downside Protection Analysis
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Distance to 52-Week Low (€436.55) | -20.2% (cushion) |
| Distance to 200-Day MA (€537) | Near support |
| Bear Case 10Y Return | +3.5% CAGR (positive) |
| Dividend Cushion (10Y cumulative) | ~30% of entry price |
| Probability of Permanent >50% Loss | <3% |
Critical insight: Even in our bear case scenario, the 10-year total return remains POSITIVE at 3.5% CAGR. With the €13 annual dividend providing 2.4% current yield, dividends alone would return approximately 30% of the purchase price over 10 years, creating substantial downside protection.
This asymmetric risk/reward profile—where even adverse scenarios preserve capital—exemplifies the Wealth Preservation Framework in action.
Risk Matrix and Monitoring Triggers
No LVMH stock analysis would be complete without transparent risk assessment. We identify and quantify the primary risk factors affecting this thesis.
Updated Risk Factors Post-Earnings
| Risk Category | Score (1-10) | Key Concern | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff Risk (NEW) | 6/10 | Trump administration tariff threats on EU goods | Pricing power and geographic diversification |
| China Exposure | 5/10 | Asia ex-Japan dependency | H2 2025 return to growth; early recovery signs |
| F&LG Weakness | 5/10 | -3% organic growth in core segment | Citi identifies “inflection point” for recovery |
| Wine & Spirits | 5/10 | Sector headwinds dragging margins | Smaller profit contribution; Sephora offsetting |
| Management Guidance | 4/10 | Arnault’s cautious “2026 won’t be simple” | Appropriate conservatism vs. alarm signal |
Position Adjustment Triggers
Add to Position If:
- Stock declines to €500 (-8.5% from €547) → Increase to 150% position
- Stock declines to €450 (-17.7% from €547) → Increase to 200% position
Exit Triggers:
| Condition | Action |
|---|---|
| Dividend cut (not freeze) | Reassess immediately; likely SELL |
| Debt/Equity rises >1.0x | SELL |
| Louis Vuitton brand impairment | SELL |
| Price reaches €800+ (>10% above fair value) | Trim to half position |
The Quantitative Alternative
Don’t have time to manage individual equity positions?
Our Quantitative Execution System removes the complexity of manual portfolio management. The algorithm-driven approach delivers:
- Systematic rebalancing based on valuation signals
- Position sizing calibrated to portfolio volatility
- 2-year audited track record with institutional transparency
For investors seeking passive wealth compounding without the operational burden of individual stock selection, this represents the logical evolution.
→ Explore Quantitative Execution
Position Sizing and Execution Parameters
Our LVMH stock analysis concludes with specific execution parameters for implementing this thesis.
Investment Parameters
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | €547.00 |
| Fair Value (Base Case) | €612 – €680 |
| Upside to Fair Value | +12% to +24% |
| Position Size | Full Position (€100 per €100 allocation) |
| Entry Strategy | 50% now at €547, 50% on any dip to €500 |
| Stop Loss | None — long-term hold; add on weakness |
Expected Outcome (10 Years from €547 Entry)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expected Total Return | 8.3% CAGR |
| Cumulative Return (10Y) | 122% |
| €100 becomes | €222 |
| vs. HYSA (4%): €100 becomes | €148 |
| Outperformance vs. Cash | €74 (+50%) |
Wealth Preservation Score Breakdown
| Input | Weight | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Downside Protection Score | 45% | 80/100 (↑ from 75) |
| Return Adequacy Score | 30% | 70/100 (↑ from 62) |
| Quality Score | 25% | 78/100 |
| COMPOSITE WP SCORE | 100% | 76/100 |
Calculation: (80 × 0.45) + (70 × 0.30) + (78 × 0.25) = 36 + 21 + 19.5 = 76.5 ≈ 76
The 15% price decline from €644 to €547 has materially IMPROVED the risk/reward profile. Downside protection increased as entry price approached support levels. Return adequacy improved as expected CAGR rose from 7.4% to 8.3%. Margin of safety expanded from 4% to nearly 20%.
WP Score: 76/100 — FULL POSITION SIZE WARRANTED
Institutional Infrastructure for Execution
For the execution of positions derived from this LVMH stock analysis, we utilize platforms meeting institutional-grade standards for liquidity, regulatory compliance, and execution quality.
European Equity Execution
For investors requiring direct Euronext Paris access (MC.PA), Interactive Brokers provides professional-tier execution with competitive commission structures and multi-currency settlement capabilities. The platform’s institutional-grade infrastructure ensures optimal fill quality for European securities.
Multi-Asset Portfolio Integration
Investors maintaining diversified portfolios across equities, currencies, and digital assets benefit from consolidated infrastructure. Revolut offers European regulatory compliance with MiFID II protections, suitable for wealth preservation mandates requiring jurisdictional certainty.
Social Trading Execution
For investors preferring transparent execution with portfolio visibility, eToro provides regulated access to LVMH shares with integrated social features enabling position transparency across the investor community.
Final Recommendation
This LVMH stock analysis identifies a rare opportunity to acquire the world’s dominant luxury conglomerate at cyclically depressed valuations.
Summary Metrics at €547
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Wealth Preservation Score | 76/100 |
| Current Price | €547 |
| Fair Value Range | €612 – €680 |
| Margin of Safety | 15-20% |
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | 24.9x (vs 27.7x 5Y avg) |
| Dividend Yield | 2.38% (vs 1.7% 5Y avg) |
| Expected Total Return (Base) | 8.3% CAGR |
| Bear Case Return | 3.5% CAGR (positive) |
| ROIC vs. WACC | 10.5% vs. 9.5% |
| Probability of Permanent Loss | <3% |
Downside Protection Summary
- Bear case preserves capital: ✓ (3.5% CAGR even in adverse scenario)
- Dividend provides income floor: ✓ (2.4% yield, 59% payout, 30+ year history)
- Balance sheet provides safety: ✓ (FORTRESS — 18.7x interest coverage)
- Valuation provides cushion: ✓ (Trading at 10-year P/E lows)
- Near technical support: ✓ (200-day MA at €537, 52-week low at €436)
Analyst Conclusion
The post-earnings selloff has created precisely the entry conditions our Wealth Preservation Framework requires. At €547, LVMH offers the world’s dominant luxury conglomerate at a 10% discount to five-year average P/E. The 2.4% dividend yield—highest in five years—with 59% payout ratio provides tangible downside protection. The fortress balance sheet with 18.7x interest coverage and minimal net debt ensures financial resilience through any reasonable adverse scenario.
While CEO Arnault’s cautious tone warrants attention, this is exactly when long-term investors should build positions in quality businesses. The fundamentals remain intact; only sentiment has changed. History demonstrates LVMH emerging stronger from every cyclical downturn.
Confidence Level: HIGH
At €547, risk/reward is strongly asymmetric in favor of the investor. Logic dictates: buy now, add on further weakness.
Risk Disclaimer
This LVMH stock analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other sort of advice. Moschovakis Capital does not recommend that any security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. You should not make any decision, financial, investment, trading or otherwise, based on any of the information presented here without undertaking independent due diligence and consultation with a competent financial advisor. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Moschovakis Capital may hold positions in securities discussed in this analysis. Affiliate relationships exist with platforms mentioned in the Infrastructure section.
Report Date: January 29, 2026
Analyst: Moschovakis Capital Research
Ticker: MC.PA (Euronext Paris) / LVMHF (OTC)
For the complete 15-page institutional PDF with DCF models, sensitivity tables, and specific entry/exit zones:
→ Download Full LVMH Analysis